President Donald Trump has said the United States has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said U.S. military efforts have helped push oil flows through the critical waterway to nearly 9 million barrels per day—far above levels indicated by publicly available shipping data.
Speaking to reporters on Aug. 11, Trump rejected Iran’s claim that Tehran continues to control access to the strait, a choke point that handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows before the Iran war began in February.
“We have total control over the Hormuz Strait right now. They don’t have control. We have total control. We own it,” Trump said.
“And at some point, maybe they’ll do something and then they get blown away. Right now, we’re in a very good position.”
Trump has previously said the strait is open and that U.S. naval forces control the waterway, although commercial ship-tracking data continue to show traffic running at a fraction of prewar levels.
However, Wright said late on Aug. 11 that publicly available maritime data significantly understate the amount of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our Gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day,” Wright said in an Aug. 11 post on X.
When flows through newly upgraded pipelines and other export facilities are included, Wright said, roughly 15 million barrels per day are currently leaving the Gulf region. He said more than 20 million barrels moved out of the region on Aug. 9 alone, exceeding the pre-conflict daily average.
Trackers Miss Covert Transits: Wright
In a follow-up statement early on Aug. 12, Wright addressed the apparent discrepancy between the administration’s estimates and those of commercial ship-tracking services.
“In coordination with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian Gulf,” Wright said.
“Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway.”
Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who previously served in national security roles in the federal government, backed Wright’s figures, arguing that the U.S. government has access to military intelligence unavailable to commercial tracking firms.
“When Secretary Wright tells us how many barrels are coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, he is speaking authoritatively with higher accuracy than any analyst, pundit or open source tracking service,” Goldberg said in an Aug. 12 statement.
“The [U.S. government] knows exactly what ship is moving, when and where, and with what cargo.”
Goldberg added that he had “very high confidence” in Wright’s numbers, describing the movement of oil through the strait as a military mission.
Others have challenged the administration’s figures.
The Hormuz Letter, an account that tracks maritime activity in the region, cited Kpler data showing a seven-day average of roughly 3 million to 4 million barrels per day, while Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors said there was no evidence of flows of 9 million barrels per day through Hormuz.
Meanwhile, public vessel counts remain sharply depressed.
Kpler tracked eight vessels transiting Hormuz on Aug. 11, the lowest tally in a week and below the 10-day average of about 12. LSEG counted 11 transits. Before the war, roughly 130 to 140 ships typically passed through the strait each day.
The International Energy Agency said on Aug. 12 that Gulf oil exports—including shipments using routes that bypass Hormuz—averaged about 15 million barrels per day in July, down by 2.1 million barrels per day from June.
The agency said 8.3 million barrels per day of Gulf production remained shut in and that global oil inventories have fallen by 410 million barrels since the start of the war.
“With an agreement enabling the reopening of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait still elusive, we have again lowered supply estimates for the rest of the year,” the International Energy Agency said in its latest report, projecting that worldwide crude production would drop by 4.3 million barrels per day this year because of the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.
Oil prices rose on Aug. 12 amid renewed attacks on shipping and fading hopes for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Brent crude was up by 0.2 percent at $89.08 per barrel as of 6:55 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 0.2 percent to $83.40.
Iran, meanwhile, disputes Trump’s assertion that Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz.
Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was cited by the semiofficial Tasnim News Agency as saying that the strait will remain closed unless the United States changes its behavior and accepts Tehran’s conditions for ending the war.
