Days after the Trump administration decided to require annual reviews of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement instead of renewing it in its current form until 2042, the Canadian government says significant uncertainty remains over the next steps in trade negotiations.
“We don’t have any more predictability about the annual review process because this is somewhat uncharted territory. It’s not typical for this kind of agreement,” Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a telephone interview Friday.
LeBlanc said he asked U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer how he intended to structure discussions as part of the annual review. He said the request was made jointly with Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard.
“There wasn’t an answer at the meeting. … It was agreed that we would continue the conversation over the coming weeks,” the minister said of the July 1 meeting, when the United States confirmed it would pursue annual reviews of CUSMA.
Canada and Mexico had hoped the agreement, in its current form, would remain in place for another 16 years. Instead, Washington wants changes, saying the current version has run its course.
The U.S. decision set in motion a renewable annual review process that could last up to 10 years. At the end of that period, the agreement would expire if no path forward is found to extend it beyond its 2036 expiry date.
“At the conclusion of the (July 1) conversation, we suggested bringing some structure and rigour to the review process the Americans have proposed,” said LeBlanc.
Exactly how those annual reviews will be conducted has yet to be determined.
Ebrard said in a video posted to X on July 1 that the road map outlining what the annual review will include has yet to be defined.
“We’re not in a hurry, but we’re also not interested in having uncertainty,” he said in Spanish.
So far, CUSMA has largely shielded Canada and Mexico from most of the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump because a broad exemption remains in place for goods that comply with the agreement.
That protection is not complete, however, and Canada and Mexico are each pursuing bilateral agreements with the United States alongside the three-country negotiations.
From Canada’s perspective, the bilateral talks could help reduce U.S. tariffs that fall outside CUSMA’s protections, including those on steel, aluminum and softwood lumber.
Asked Friday how Canada would distinguish between issues to be addressed through the annual CUSMA review and those that would be handled in bilateral talks, LeBlanc acknowledged he did not yet have all the answers.
“One of the difficulties since Mr. Trump arrived is precisely these uncertainties,” he said. “The goal of our conversations with the Americans is, obviously, to reduce the sectoral tariffs that are hurting the economies of all three countries and, at the same time, to try to bring some predictability or some rigour to the conversations on the CUSMA review.”
Mexico expects to host a U.S. delegation during the week of July 20 as part of its own bilateral negotiations with the U.S.
Canada has not yet announced a date for a similar meeting.
On that point, LeBlanc said he was encouraged that on the same day as the July 1 meeting, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Goettman contacted Canada’s chief negotiator, Janice Charette, “to discuss the agenda for the next bilateral discussions.”
“It was to discuss their next meeting in Washington in the coming weeks,” the minister said.
He also said he and Greer agreed to “resume bilateral discussions soon.”
“Over the course of—I would say—the next few weeks,” he added.
“I remain confident that we‘ll reach a bilateral agreement and that we’ll reduce the uncertainty surrounding the CUSMA review, but we’ll do the work over the summer to put ourselves in that position,” LeBlanc said.
Asked whether Ottawa is concerned the Trump administration could use bilateral talks to weaken a common front between Canada and Mexico during the trilateral discussions, LeBlanc said he was not particularly worried.
“My conversation on July 1 was encouraging in the sense that all three countries recognized the importance of having a North American economy that will be competitive with other economic blocs in other parts of the world,” he said. “One of the common points we discussed, for example, is how to have a North American economy with integrated supply chains that could compete with other regions of the world that are competing with us.”
LeBlanc said he had heard that, several years ago, the idea of weakening a united front “was a scenario that came up in discussions.” At the time, CUSMA was being negotiated to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement after the first Trump administration threatened to withdraw from the pact while pushing to renegotiate it.
“That didn’t happen,” he said. “We have issues in common with Mexico, just as there are bilateral issues that are different.”
