Haven’t you heard? The world is undergoing great changes unseen in a century. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping is doing his level best to make sure everyone knows.
In front of the cameras – and microphones – of the Western media in 2023, he told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: “Now is the moment of change unseen in a century. We are jointly driving it forward.” Of course, Putin could only agree. But agree with what, exactly?
The formulation clearly means something important. Xi enshrined it at the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2017, and has used it many times in other key speeches and documents. The phrase is even used to describe Xi’s approach since taking charge at the 18th National Party Congress in 2012.
But what does it mean?
Maybe Wikipedia can help. The dedicated page on the topic relies on a 2024 European Council on Foreign Relations e-book. The authors trace the origin to Yuan Peng and his 2009 article “The Financial Crisis and U.S. Economic Hegemony” in the Chinese academic journal Contemporary International Relations.
Wikipedia and the ECFR authors also cite the dedicated entry in the Center for Strategic Translation’s glossary, which tells us the phrase was:
… first used by Chinese academics following the Great Recession. The phrase is associated with the dangers and opportunities posed by American decline, and has been adopted by THE CENTER as a programmatic assessment of the trajectory of the current world order. The trends which can be feasibly linked to this trajectory are diverse.
The source for this is Rush Doshi’s 2021 book, “The Long Game.”
Doshi writes, in turn:
The concept first emerged from conversations about Western decline after the Global Financial Crisis. One of its first usages was in a 2009 essay titled “The Financial Crisis and American Economic Hegemony” written by Yuan Peng… Yuan Peng observed that the United States “for the first time in the history of its hegemony” was suffering from a series of grave challenges, that these were producing “great changes unseen in a century”
Yuan’s article has an original Chinese version and a translation. Doshi’s quotes are his own translation.
As it turns out, both versions mistranslate Yuan. The original Chinese refers to: “The ‘eastward shift of global power’ and the rise of emerging powers have brought about changes not seen in centuries.” (emphasis mine)
Earlier in the article, Yuan referred to Henry Kissinger’s “theory” of “great changes unseen in 400 years” and how Kissinger saw the “‘eastward shift of power’” as “an inevitable trend.”
So is Xi’s catchy phrase just one more thing Kissinger gave China, along with decades of what the Chinese call “strategic opportunity”? Maybe. But why “centuries” not “a century”? Why did Yuan write about “400 years” not “100 years”?
In trying to glean the origins of the phrase, we shouldn’t be too influenced by the specific Chinese character formulation. Yes, Yuan’s quote is exactly the same as Beijing’s official phrase with the addition of a shu to specify several centuries and the subtraction of the da that indicates the changes are great. But both follow the famous line (at least in Chinese histro-literary culture) from late Qing Dynasty statesman Li Hongzhang, about “great changes unseen in thousands of years.” And others have used the same formulation before it became an official slogan, such as a literature professor in 1993.
To establish descent, we want both the focus on great hegemonic changes and a single century. Funnily enough, this brings us back to Kissinger. The first line of the first chapter of his 1994 book “Diplomacy” stated: “Almost as if according to some natural law, in every century there seems to emerge a country with the power, the will, and the intellectual and moral impetus to shape the entire international system in accordance with its own values.”
One Chinese paying attention was Liu Mingfu, author of the bestselling book “China Dream” published in January 2010.
With that quote from Kissinger and references to some other Western scholars as support, Liu asserted something much like an actual natural law. According to Liu, there is a hundred-year cycle of new “champion countries” rising up to transform the world as they transform themselves, driving historical progress forward for the benefit of humankind. China’s dream is its destiny, Liu proclaimed, and it will replace the U.S. as the champion country. Unlike hegemonic Uncle Sam, the People’s Republic of China will be a leader, drawing on the Chinese distinction between a bullying hegemon and those who lead the “Kingly Way.” But military strength is key – the only way to righteously push a selfish U.S. into doing what’s best for itself and humanity as whole, starting with stepping aside as Taiwan gets “unified.”
Strong circumstantial evidence points to Liu as the source of the phrase about “great changes unseen in a century.” Xi’s signature “China Dream” is the very title of Liu’s book. As Xi ascended to power he ordered the creation of a website to educate cadres, which recommended Liu’s book in 2013. In his first 2012 meeting with the new military leadership, he pointed to “great changes unseen before.” Most if not all of the ideas in the book have prominent analogues in Xi’s policies. The 2019 “China and the World in the New Era” white paper contained thinly disguised Liu Mingfu. Explainers for internal consumption on “great changes unseen in a century” and the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” recapitulate the themes of Liu’s book. And in a dog-that-didn’t-bark way, they do so without mentioning Liu.
Liu, no fool, understands that it’s embarrassing that Xi Jinping Thought is derivative of a popular nonfiction book. Interviewed by the foreign media when Xi unveiled the “China Dream” slogan, Liu was triumphant (As the BBC put it: “Colonel Liu Mingfu seems to think that he has more capital than most to tell Xi Jinping his dreams”) but careful not to stick his neck out too far:
The world today is undergoing a major change unseen in a century, but this also means we have the opportunity to make major changes. China’s national goal is nothing less than to realize the “Chinese Dream”, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people. Its core strategy is the “Belt and Road” initiative to connect the world and bring happiness through cooperation. The ultimate goal will be to build a community with a shared future for mankind.
And he needs to be careful. The better connected and more powerful Liu Yazhou, who provided the foreword to Liu Mingfu’s book, is reportedly in prison on a commuted death sentence. No wonder Liu wanted a photo showing him smiling as he holds up books on Xi Jinping Thought next to a plate with Xi on it.
But still, he must be satisfied with how his decision to read Kissinger’s book turned out. While Xi is driving great changes unseen in a century with Putin and others, Liu knows that he was the first mover in driving great changes in Xi’s head.
